Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Thailand’s parliamentary election on Sunday, the release of Pakistan’s Imran Khan by the High Court, and U.S. accusations of South African arms deals with Russia.
Decision Time for Thailand
Thai citizens head to the polls on Sunday in the country’s parliamentary election, which could be the first truly competitive vote in nearly a decade. As final campaign rallies take place, polling suggests the political opposition has a real chance to win big this year.
Since ending its absolute monarchy in 1932, Thailand has faced 12 coups and ratified 20 constitutions amid elections and peaceful transfers of power. The most recent government upheaval occurred in 2014, when the Royal Thai Armed Forces, led by Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, ousted then-Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Prayuth has served as prime minister since the coup.
In 2016, Thailand’s junta drafted a new constitution establishing a 250-seat Senate appointed entirely by military officials. Because the Senate votes for the prime minister alongside the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Thai parliament, this move gives a boost to the junta’s preferred candidate. In Thailand’s most recent elections in 2019, Prayuth won a second term—despite the opposition Pheu Thai Party winning more seats in the House.
How will Sunday’s election work?
Around 52 million people are eligible to vote in Thailand, or around 72 percent of the population. This year, voters will fill out two ballots for the first time: one to choose their local representative in the 500-seat House of Representatives and one to designate their preferred party. The House will allocate 100 seats for appointed party officials based on which parties receive the most public support. The threshold for a party to qualify for seats has increased, providing bigger parties with an advantage.
Unofficial voting numbers are expected on Sunday night, but local election authorities said it is likely the official results won’t be confirmed for weeks. At that point, parties that garnered more than 25 seats in the House can put forward a candidate for prime minister, with a vote likely to be held in August. To win the top post, a candidate must secure 376 votes, which can be drawn from both the House and the Senate.
Given recent polling, it’s possible that the opposition parties could overcome the military’s Senate advantage if they band together. This year is also likely to be the last time the Senate will vote for Thailand’s prime minister, as the rule was established in 2017 as a temporary measure.
Which parties are running?
Leading the conservative pack is the newly created United Thai Nation Party, led by Prayuth. He hopes that strong backing from the military will propel him to a third term, but a split within the junta could threaten his success. Former army chief Prawit Wongsuwan now leads the military-aligned Palang Pracharat Party. Another conservative party, Bhumjaithai, also threatens Prayuth’s dominance. Bhumjaithai ruled in the current coalition government and won some public support by leading the charge to decriminalize marijuana in Thailand.
Prayuth’s biggest challenge, though, comes from the pro-democracy Pheu Thai Party, led by 36-year-old political scion Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The Pheu Thai Party is currently leading in polls and hopes for a landslide. Other progressive parties are scrambling for seats too, specifically the Move Forward Party. Led by Pita Limjaroenrat, Move Forward has taken Thailand’s youth by storm. The party campaigned on reforming Thailand’s monarchy and banning the military from politics.
The Pheu Thai Party must tread a fine line between achieving a large enough victory to overcome the Senate’s challenge and not sparking another coup, journalist Andrew Nachemson wrote in Foreign Policy. “Pheu Thai could avoid a similar scenario by working with a military-linked party,” Nachemson argued. “However, this compromise may rankle its own supporters, not to mention the reform-minded young activists who led mass protests in 2020.”
What are the biggest issues on the table?
Thailand, which is Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, is facing a financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic hit the country’s tourism sector hard, and recovery has been slow. This has made boosting the country’s prospects for solid economic growth a key campaign issue. Many candidates have proposed changes to state welfare benefits as well as increasing the minimum wage.
Another key issue is Thailand’s slide toward autocracy, which led to mass political protests in 2020 and 2021. This year, Freedom House ranked Thailand as “not free” in its annual assessment of political rights and civil liberties. Although some observers worry about another coup if the opposition wins Sunday’s election, Thai army chief Narongpan Jitkaewthae swore that the military would abide by the results. “There shouldn’t be [a coup] anymore,” he said. “For me, this word should be deleted from the dictionary.”
Today’s Most Read
Imran Khan freed—for now. On Friday, Islamabad’s High Court granted bail to former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Khan faces multiple corruption charges and was arrested by paramilitary forces on Tuesday. The court ordered a two-week reprieve from arrest, allowing the former leader to return home to Lahore. Until now, Khan was held in a safe house under the court’s protection. Thousands of Khan’s supporters protested his arrest this week, at times turning violent and leading some local officials to request military assistance.
This latest move comes a day after Pakistan’s highest court, the Supreme Court, ruled that Khan’s arrest was “unlawful” and ordered his release. The political firebrand still faces other allegations and charges, and a conviction on any of them would bar him from contesting national elections, which are currently scheduled for October. Khan and his supporters have characterized the charges facing him and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party as politically motivated.
Pretoria in the hot seat. South Africa is pushing back on U.S. allegations that the country violated U.S. sanctions on Russia. On Thursday, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed that a government inquiry will investigate U.S. claims that armaments and ammunition were loaded onto a Russian ship docked at Cape Town last December. Such a move would undercut Western efforts to punish Russia for its war in Ukraine.
However, some South African officials expressed disappointment over what they said appeared to be a U.S. effort to strong-arm their country into allying with Washington over Moscow. South Africa has continued to call for dialogue between Russia and Ukraine without choosing a side in the war.
Dire displacement. A new report from the Norwegian Refugee Council documents a record-high number of internally displaced people around the world. Around 71.1 million people were displaced by conflict or natural disasters last year, a 20 percent increase compared with 2021. 2022 was a “perfect storm,” leading to “displacement on a scale never seen before,” said Jan Egeland, the secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council.
Contributing to the increase were Russia’s war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, and Syria’s continuing civil war. The number of people displaced by natural disasters skyrocketed by 45 percent from the year prior. United Nations experts worry 2023 will be worse: As of this week, more than 700,000 people have been displaced due to the ongoing conflict in Sudan.
Ecuador’s National Assembly voted Tuesday to move forward with impeachment proceedings against President Guillermo Lasso over allegations of what?
A. Blackmail
B. Manslaughter
C. Embezzlement
D. Attempted self-coup
Climate activists in Sweden have had enough. To protest the country’s failures to limit its fossil fuel emissions, members of the Scientist Rebellion group threw fake blood on the front doors of the Swedish Finance Ministry. The move is just the latest unorthodox protest from climate activists, which have included a cream cake attack against the Mona Lisa in Paris last year. (The cake did not make it past the protective barrier.)
C. Embezzlement
Lasso was voted into office on a conservative platform amid sinking trust in democratic institutions, Will Freeman wrote in 2021. That faith has apparently since taken a nosedive.
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