Where Will the Global Economy Land in 2024?

NEW YORK – Around this time a year ago, about 85% of economists and market analysts – including me – expected that the US and global economy would suffer a recession. Falling but still-sticky inflation suggested that monetary policy would grow tighter before rapidly easing once the recession hit; stock markets would fall, and bond yields would remain high.

• The current baseline for many economists and analysts is a soft landing, where advanced economies avoid a recession but growth is below potential and inflation falls toward the 2% target.
• An upside scenario is one with “no landing”, where growth remains above potential and inflation falls less than markets and the Fed anticipate.
• A downside scenario is a bumpy landing with a short, shallow recession that pushes inflation lower, faster than central banks expect.

Instead, the opposite mostly happened. Inflation fell more than…