Thailand’s billionaire former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, has roared back from 17 years of self-exile and planted himself firmly in the middle of two opposing forces: military-backed royalists and crusading liberals who would like to cut the wings of the high-flying, sacrosanct monarchy — if not do away with it entirely.
That Thailand’s supreme court sentenced Mr. Thaksin to eight years in prison on multiple corruption charges as he alighted from his Gulfstream jet from Singapore was not a problem for a man who served as prime minister for five years before being forced to flee. The trimly dressed Mr. Thaksin, who lived in self-exile in Dubai, was smiling and looked to be doing fine when photographed inside the plane after it arrived at Don Muang airport near Bangkok.
Now reported to be resting comfortably in a hospital, nursing what’s described as a “heart condition,” the 74-year-old Mr. Thaksin is not likely to serve a day inside a normal jail. The controversial king, Maha Vajiralongkorn, 71, commuted his sentence to one year, making him eligible for parole in four months, if not a royal pardon.
So, what’s going on here? Has Mr. Thaksin, once a populist politician with mass appeal among the country’s poor, cut a deal with a king who’s actually reviled by a legion of anti-royalist critics despite the infamous lèse-majesté law? Did the king, who spends much of his time in luxury digs in Germany and elsewhere, decide one way to ensure his own safety and longevity on the throne was to get Mr. Thaksin firmly on his side?
In the complicated web of Thai power politics, King Maha Vajiralongkorn now counts for support on a political party named Pheu Thai, of which Mr. Thaksin was the founder.
The party, when Mr. Thaksin was prime minister between 2001 and 2005, seethed with liberal ambitions, including doing away with the lèse-majesté law. Hidebound royalists at the top of the social and military hierarchy hated Preu Thai, but now it’s an instrument on the side of the armed forces, defender of the sanctity of royalty.
If was for that reason the military, the center of real power in Thailand, made sure that the Preu Thai leader, Srettha Thavisin, got “elected” as prime minister by a combined vote of the parliament’s house of representatives and the senate over the candidate of the leftist, populist party named Move Forward, which has called for banning the military from politics.
Mr. Srettha controlled a clear majority in the lower house, thanks to the party’s great success in the latest elections, but the senate, appointed by the military, swung the vote to the right. Yet will Mr. Srettha, 61, really rule – or will Mr. Thaksin operate as the power behind the throne of the king?
His family is accustomed to power. Mr. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck, served as prime minister between 2011 and 2014 before fleeing the country temporarily in 2016 to avoid separate corruption charges, and his daughter, Paetongtarn, now heads the Preu Thai Party, all of which strongly suggests it was no coincidence that Mr. Thaksin returned hours before Mr. Srettha’s election.
Nor was Mr. Thaksin the only contender for power and prestige to reappear in Bangkok after years overseas. The king’s second son, Prince Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, was disclosed last month to be back “home” after a 27-year absence forced by the king, who kicked him out of the country along with his two brothers after accusing their mother, then the queen, of adultery.
Their half-sister, Princess Bajrakitiyabha, born of a later marriage, appeared in line to ascend to the throne, but she suffered an aneurysm eight months ago, falling into a coma from which she has yet to awaken.
Amid all the coincidences, the overwhelming concern appears to be the need for stability in a country in which coups d’etat occur with startling regularity.
With a fortune that Forbes places at $2.1 billion, made largely from telecommunications, Mr. Thaksin had a messianic appeal among workers and peasants, many in the poor northern and northeastern provinces, by espousing their demands for higher pay and better medical care. A coup staged by the military forced out Mr. Thaksin despite his party’s success in two elections.
Through coups and crackdowns, the monarchy historically has been the primary stabilizing influence.
King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, occupied the throne for seven decades before dying in 2016, remaining aloof and above the fray during fighting, sometimes bloody, among factions. The son’s erratic lifestyle and wild private life have contributed to growing skepticism about the monarchy.
Mr. Thaksin’s “efforts to combat poverty earned him overwhelming popular and rural support against the elite,” a leading newspaper, the South China Morning Post, published in Hong Kong, said. “Yet the billionaire’s return this week could help bring stability to a restive nation.”
