Waiting for China

Since China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, growth has averaged almost 10% a year, and more than 800 million people have been lifted out of poverty. There have also been significant improvements in access to health, education and other services, with the mainland now an upper-middle-income country.

But rapid development based on resource-intensive manufacturing, exports and low-paid labour has largely reached its limits and has led to economic, social and environmental imbalances. China is also a major influence on other developing economies through trade and investment, and its economy is an important source of global demand.

Economic expansion has now moderated in the face of structural constraints, including declining labour force growth, diminishing returns on investment and slowing productivity. Following real gross domestic product (GDP)…