The baht continues to face pressure from the dollar’s appreciation after the Fed vowed to raise interest rates until inflation was controlled. Most recently, on the night of September 27, the baht depreciated to 38 baht per dollar. First time counting in 16 years and 2 months
However, on the Thai baht side Investors are keeping an eye on the outcome of the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting today (Sept. 28), with most estimates that the MPC will continue to raise the policy rate gradually to 0.25. % to 1% to narrow the interest rate gap between the US and Thailand.
During the past 3 business days Started to see foreign investors as net sellers in both the stock market and the bond market of 14,752 million baht, divided into net selling in the stock market of 6,181 million baht and net selling in the bond market of 8,571 million baht.
The Kasikorn Research Center estimates that at the MPC meeting Going forward, the MPC is expected to raise the policy rate by 0.25% to 1% amid the pressure from high inflation and the continued depreciation of the baht.
However, the MPC will likely continue to gradually raise interest rates as previously signaled. Amid the Thai economy that is recovering and is still fragile due to high levels of debt in the corporate and household sectors, the MPC will likely avoid sharply raising the policy interest rate as it will affect the economic recovery. economy
Meanwhile, the MPC maintains its view that a strong recovery in the tourism sector during the rest of this year will help support the currency’s reversal to some extent. that exchange rate stability is a short-term issue And there is still time to monitor the situation and change monetary policy in the future.
However, at the meeting that will be held on September 28, if the MPC resolves to raise the policy rate to 0.25% as expected, there may be pressure on the baht to continue to depreciate.
However, the US inflation and economic numbers must be monitored. This will affect the tendency of the Fed and the dollar to raise interest rates. Including the current account balance of Thailand that will affect the trend of the baht in the future.
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