Perils and Promise Beneath Global Enthusiasm for Thai Baht

There appears to be a surge of excitement around the baht. Established Chinese investors and small family offices are eyeing Thai assets to hedge against Western sanctions and China’s own uncertain political economy. Some Hong Kongers are emigrating and moving businesses to Bangkok. In New York, acquaintances in finance talk of bets on the baht’s rise. Investor and Financial Times contributing editor Ruchir Sharma tapped this sentiment with enthusiastic praise for Thailand’s currency in an essay in February.

Does the newfound attention to the baht augur strong growth for Thailand’s economy and a larger role for the baht in international finance? It is possible that Thailand could revive dreams of prominence in…