The results so far are good news for the Bhumjaithai Party and Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and may be seen as a rejection of Mr Chuwit Kamolvisit’s anti-marijuana crusade. The election results are still coming but it looks like the political future of the kingdom is still one of uncertainty based on the results so far (continuing report on this page).
The incoming results for the Thai General Election are throwing a plethora of possibilities as it seems clear that the Pheu Thai Party has now won a landslide while the election has been a sweeping victory of the Move Forward Party which is sending a signal that Thai people particularly the young want to see change and are capable of exercising their voting franchise. Nevertheless, the coalition government parties have performed better than most polls expected and could still, in theory, form a minority government. The key question now is the fate of both the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties which are facing disturbing probes by the Election Commission and the attitude of the Thai Senate or upper house which still retains 250 votes in the sections of the next prime minister when parliament convenes in the coming months.
Results are starting to roll in from the General Election and the news is quite a surprise on several fronts. Please note that these are projected results which can go lower or higher based on the system being sued to project the elections result in advance of the count.
Opening figures show the Move Forward Party leading the race on 157 seats but this has fallen back to 122.
For a start, the Pheu Thai Party looks like it has failed in its efforts to gain a landslide victory in this General Election according to initial tallies with the top three coalition parties already winning 134 seats between them which is more than opinion polls before the election had consistently suggested.
On the other hand, it is also clear that the more radical Move Forward Party has performed very well in the General Election and is currently projected to bag 122 seats.
Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties look like they will command a majority in parliament but all hinges on actions of the Senate and Election Commission
The results so far suggest that the Move Forward Party and Pheu Thai Party may be on course for a commanding majority in parliament but the results also mean, in theory at least, that the coalition government parties together with the unelected upper house or Senate could install a Prime Minister between them with the full or unanimous support of senators.
Indications in recent days suggested that the Senate would back the largest party or bloc that could control a majority in the House of Representatives but these were also conflicted.
A government elected with a minority in the House of Representatives would not be able to govern effectively while also the Senate loses its power over the selection of a prime minister in June of next year.
Probes into Pita Limjaroenrat and the Pheu Thai Party are disturbing factors in the election outcome which are now creating uncertainty about the future
However, a key hurdle that may be facing the opposition parties in the struggle to form a government is a complaint concerning the leader of today’s victorious Move Forward Party, Mr Pita Limjaroenrat in recent days regarding a shareholding in a media firm lodged with the Election Commission while the Pheu Thai Party itself is under continued investigation for its controversial digital wallet election pledge.
Move Forward leader denies claims he held shares in media company barring him as a Bangkok MP
Pheu Thai is facing a threat of dissolution with complaint being pursued by the Election Commission
If these issues can be put to bed by the Election Commission or ignored for now, then Mr Pira looks like he may be on course for government while if the coalition government parties pursue the course of establishing a minority government then General Prayut Chna ocha or even Bhumjaithai Party leader Mr Anutin Charnvirakul may emerge as Thailand’s new government leader.
Bhumjaithai Party has achieved more seats than it did in 2019 and is well placed for the political horse-trading and manoeuvres which will now begin
The Bhumjaithai Party appears on target to exceed the number of seats it achieved in the last election and is projected to bag 64 seats while General Prayut’s United Thai Nation (Ruam Thai Sang Chart) Party is already at 40 which can be counted as moderate success.
The Palang Pracharat Party which had been facing decimation still looks set to retain at least 40 seats so far.
The disappointment in this election will be felt by the Pheu Thai Party which currently is on 134 seats, although it is now ahead of the Move Forward Party.
It’s too early yet but the fact that the party had two high-profile nominees in Ms Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Mr Srettha Thavisin may have been a mistake while the later intervention of Mr Thaksin Shinawatra, the former hosted the Prime Minister in the 2006 coup d’état who is still threatening to return home before July 26th next, is also thought to have switched voters off.
This story is being updated as results come in.
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Further reading:
Move Forward leader denies claims he held shares in media company barring him as a Bangkok MP
Move Forward Party surging in the polls as the General Election campaign enters its final week
PM warns giveaway policies of some parties may be ‘bad karma’ for the country in the longer run
Leader of PM’s UTN tells rally a government led by his party will ‘get tough’ with nation haters
Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan warns that those in power who support coups still exist
Former ministers rejoin the Palang Pracharat Party but there is no new economics czar Somkid
Ung Ing says Prawit is better liked than PM Prayut with reports of the return of key ex-ministers
