Although many observers predicted Thailand’s two main opposition parties would emerge victorious in the May 14 parliamentary elections, few expected the progressive Move Forward Party to edge out the populist Pheu Thai Party. Pheu Thai or a previous iteration of the party had won the most seats in every Thai election since 2001. But Move Forward won 152 seats to Pheu Thai’s 141, according to unofficial results, by eating into the latter’s traditional strongholds. In Chiang Mai province, for example, Move Forward took seven of 10 seats; during the last election in 2019, Pheu Thai had swept them all.
Although many observers predicted Thailand’s two main opposition parties would emerge victorious in the May 14 parliamentary elections, few expected the progressive Move Forward Party to edge out the populist Pheu Thai Party. Pheu Thai or a previous iteration of the party had won the most seats in every Thai election since 2001. But Move Forward won 152 seats to Pheu Thai’s 141, according to unofficial results, by eating into the latter’s traditional strongholds. In Chiang Mai province, for example, Move Forward took seven of 10 seats; during the last election in 2019, Pheu Thai had swept them all.
If the election result is disappointing for the Pheu Thai Party, it’s a nightmare for Thailand’s conservative establishment, which centers around the politically meddlesome military and the country’s monarchy. Move Forward, which first gained momentum with Thailand’s youth, hopes to make its reform-minded leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, the next prime minister. The party’s proposed plan for its first year in power pledges to rewrite the military-drafted 2017 constitution and reopen investigations into the deadly military crackdown against pro-democracy protesters in 2010. Move Forward has also promised to amend Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté laws, which criminalize criticism of the monarchy.
In the not-so-distant past, Move Forward’s reformist agenda would have been seen as radical in Thailand. But in the wake of the military’s latest intervention in the country’s politics—the 2014 coup that overthrew a Pheu Thai-led government—calls for a total overhaul have become mainstream. The military remains firmly in control of the country’s most important institutions, meaning it could subvert the election result, but doing so would throw Thailand into a political crisis. Its attempts to control the population have sparked a cycle of repression and protest that will only end when the military accepts the will of the people.
There may be room for compromise, but Move Forward is unlikely to grant major concessions on its core agenda. The party vaulted into pole position largely because of its clear principles; after its victory, it is no longer just a vehicle for fed-up youth but Thailand’s most popular party, winning votes across demographics. Move Forward’s predecessor, the Future Forward Party, won the third-most seats in the 2019 election, its first-ever contest. Thailand’s Constitutional Court dissolved the party in 2020, finding that it had violated election rules by receiving an illegal donation. This helped trigger a mass protest movement calling for reforms to the military and the monarchy. Future Forward members regrouped under the Move Forward banner.
Move Forward’s Chonthicha Jaengraew was on the protest front lines in 2020, and she is now an elected member of parliament for Pathum Thani province, about an hour north of Bangkok. In 2019, Future Forward won just one of the six seats in this province; this year, Move Forward took six of seven up for grabs. “The youth uprising in 2020, and all the hard work of the pro-democracy activists, made a lot of people aware how important it is for our country to have democracy,” Chonthicha said. “They wanted to see something new,” she added, explaining that the party made explicit that it would not form a coalition with any military-backed parties and would push to reform the military if elected.
Move Forward is now in a delicate position: trying to get into power without upsetting its passionate base. The party already reversed a decision to accept one minor party into its coalition; another withdrew due to backlash among its supporters. Although Move Forward hasn’t backed down on its position on the lèse-majesté laws, it has said its partners do not need to agree. Despite some analysts predicting Pheu Thai might cooperate with the military, the party quickly joined Move Forward’s coalition, giving the two parties a clear majority in the 500-seat House of Representatives. But 250 military-appointed senators will still vote for the prime minister, setting up a mathematical showdown. Move Forward has appealed to senators and conservative members of parliament to stand down and vote for Pita as prime minister.
Although not impossible, that will be an uphill battle. Pita’s stance on the lèse-majesté laws may be a nonstarter for many conservative politicians. The issue has already come up within the moderate Democrat Party, which is part of the losing coalition. Although one senior official said the party should respect the result and vote for Pita, another official said support should be conditional on preserving lèse-majesté. “The chances of the Senate and the conservative non-coalition parties voting for Pita are not high,” said Ken Lohatepanont, a political science Ph.D. student at the University of Michigan. “The conservative parties also have to take into account their own voters, who are likely very much opposed to many of Move Forward’s policies.”
The shocking result of Thailand’s election has nonetheless backed the military into a corner. Although it has many tools left at its disposal, it has no good options. The political establishment could block Pita’s candidacy for prime minister in the Senate, disqualify candidates through Thailand’s Election Commission, use the Constitutional Court to dissolve Move Forward, or even stage another coup. But all of these moves would lead to the same outcome: a political crisis and mass street protests, especially in Bangkok, where Move Forward won 32 of 33 seats. “Taking the streets would be the only way out,” Sainam, an 18-year-old protester and first-time voter, said this week.
The military has no way of solving its main problem: Thailand has rejected its rule, and the core of its opposition is young, uncompromising, and well-organized—and it now has the legitimacy that comes with an election victory.
There is one other possibility. If Move Forward fails to form a government, Pheu Thai can try to cobble together a coalition of its own, since it came in second place. In that scenario, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Pheu Thai’s candidate for prime minister, would reenter the spotlight. The 36-year-old is the scion of Thailand’s most influential political family—the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, overthrown by the military in a 2006 military coup, and the niece of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, overthrown in 2014.
If the Senate blocks Move Forward, Paetongtarn has two paths to the prime minister’s office. Pheu Thai could form a coalition with more conservative parties, although this seems increasingly unlikely. It would undermine Pheu Thai’s already-dented support and do nothing to deter Move Forward voters from taking to the streets. Alternatively, Pita’s more radical views could make Paetongtarn look more palatable to the conservative establishment. Thailand’s Senate could let Paetongtarn through as prime minister as a compromise, with Move Forward and Pheu Thai still serving together in a ruling coalition. “The Senate may not prove as resistant to a Pheu Thai prime minister candidate,” Lohatepanont said.
If the military stops both Move Forward and Pheu Thai from forming a government, it will all but guarantee a crisis. Although the Senate could force through a minority government, a vote of no confidence only requires a simple majority in the lower house. Move Forward and Pheu Thai could easily remove a military-backed prime minister, leaving the government in limbo. A Pheu Thai-led government in coalition with Move Forward would frustrate many of the latter’s progressive supporters, but it is an outcome they would probably accept as an improvement on the military-led administrations of the last nine years.
There is some irony in the military’s predicament: It staged two coups, leading to nearly 17 years of political turmoil in Thailand, precisely to stop the Shinawatra family from threatening its grip on power. Now, the generals may see Pheu Thai as their last hope to avoid Move Forward’s deeper reforms. The military is in a mess of its own making. By refusing to allow even modest checks on its power, it has unleashed a movement far more threatening to its interests. It’s time for the generals to cut their losses and let the democratic process run its course.
