Mainland China is in no position to take Taiwan by force

The situation across the Taiwan Strait has seemed to be on the brink of crisis since 2018. Beijing has sent numerous sorties of military aircraft to conduct exercises near Taiwan and frequently crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

It has been rumoured that the mainland is considering seizing Taiwan’s outlying islands, suggesting that it is increasingly eager to take Taiwan by force.

With the exception of missile exercises during Taiwan’s first direct presidential election in 1996, Beijing has historically been restrained in its military intimidation, choosing to vent its anger through rhetoric or symbolic sanctions. Its recent assertiveness is best explained by its rising military power status and stronger expressions of motivation for reunification.

Improved amphibious warfare and anti-access/area denial capabilities mean the military balance is tipping in the…