Global and Thai economy in a ‘no-landing scenario’

The world economy in the first quarter of 2023, especially in January, seems to be defying gravity. The US labour market and retail sales figures have been much better than expected, while inflation is showing signs of a slower-than-expected slowdown.

You probably have heard of hard and soft landings, but what is happening now is what some economists and strategists define as a “no-landing scenario”. What that means is that the economy is still expanding despite rising interest rates, while inflation is still high, which will lead central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates.

We believe a no-landing scenario is unlikely to materialise, though inflation will still be the main risk. The INVX Global Inflation Study found that inflation in 18…