GDP expansion of 3.9% to be fuelled by tourism and consumption, but external demand weak
The World Bank has upgraded its economic growth forecast for Thailand, saying improved performance will be helped by private consumption growth and a recovery in tourism.
The country’s economy is projected to grow 3.9% this year, up from a previous forecast of 3.6%, the development lender said in its latest Thailand Economic Monitor report on Wednesday.
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy expanded by a modest 2.6% in 2022, when the tourism sector began to rebound after broad pandemic-related travel curbs were eased.
Growth is expected at 3.6% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, with tourism and private consumption remaining the primary drivers of growth as external demand weakens, the World Bank said in a statement on Wednesday.
The return of tourists, particularly from China, has strengthened the tourism outlook. Arrivals are projected to reach a greater-than-expected 28.5 million this year, 84% of the pre-pandemic 2019 level, it said.
However, downside risks remain as weaker-than-expected global growth and political uncertainty pose key challenges to the near-term growth outlook, the bank said.
The country is in the process of forming a new government after the May 14 election, but doubts linger whether the winning Move Forward party has enough support for its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, to be voted as prime minister.
Parliament will convene on Monday, with the speaker to be chosen the following day, and the vote for prime minister expected in mid-July.
