Why release of Thaksin could be a tipping point for Thai politics

The expected release of convicted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra next week is set to inject more heat into the simmering powerplay between conservative elites and the ex-PM, analysts say.

The ex-premier is expected to be freed on bail even if he is hit with a fresh charge of lese majeste under Article 112 of the Criminal Code. The Office of the Attorney-General is considering whether to indict Thaksin for allegedly defaming the monarchy with comments he made in South Korea in November 2009.

However, this new case is unlikely to prevent Thaksin’s release on parole when his 180-day detention is up on February 18, even though he has spent all but a few hours of that period in the Police General Hospital, according to political observers.

His daughter Paetongtarn has reportedly said Thaksin will stay at his family mansion of Ban Chan Songla in Bangkok after being set free on…