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Monday, May 6, 2024

Who Has the Stomach — Or Obstinacy — to Stand Against the Dollar?

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It’s getting harder for some emerging markets to hide from the dollar’s rampage. Staying on the sidelines or going slow while US interest rates climb risks further degradation of already weakened currencies — and a consequent worsening of inflation at home. To stand against this tide requires fortitude and, perhaps, more than a touch of obstinacy.  

In an environment where inflation is stubbornly elevated, almost no prospective Federal Reserve hike seems too big to be outlandish. Just a few months ago, the idea that an increase of 100 basis points in July would be on the table seemed extreme. Now, it’s considered plausible. The buck has extended its surge as a result, hitting a record high Thursday against a basket of developed and emerging-market currencies.

So much for the eclipse of America as the fulcrum of the world economy. The euro has…

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