Across Thailand, many of its citizens are asking one fundamental question: What’s the point of holding elections?
In May, the South-East Asian country of more than 70 million people held a general election. However it’s looking almost certain that the winner won’t lead the country.
Now nearly three months after the vote, there’s no new prime minister, no new government, and a number of protests have been held by Thais who are fed up with their political system.
A powerful military
Over the past decade, Thai politics has largely been defined by the 2014 military coup — one of more than a dozen coups there since 1932 — and the subsequent 2017 military-backed constitution.
“[The latest constitution] was written to preserve the power of the military and the monarchy, and [also] the political elites,” Aim Sinpeng, from the University of Sydney’s Department of Government and International Relations, tells ABC RN’s Between the Lines.
For example, the constitution “allows for the Senate [or upper house] — which is fully appointed by the military — to decide who will be the prime minister”, she explains.
Since that 2014 coup, the country has been led by army-chief-turned-prime-minister Prayuth Chan-ocha.
And the political framework developed under his watch means anyone challenging the establishment faces a huge uphill climb.
The May election
Thailand held a general election on May 14. And it looked like the progressive Move Forward party, led by 42-year-old, Harvard-educated Pita Limjaroenrat, could be a force to be reckoned with.
Move Forward has “taken on the two most powerful forces in Thai politics: The military and the monarchy”, explains Greg Raymond from the Australian National University’s Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, who has also worked at the Australian embassy in Bangkok.
The party’s sweeping reform proposals include ending army conscription, breaking up monopolies, and amending the country’s controversial lese majeste law, which criminalises any criticism of the monarchy.
With its liberal, pro-democracy platform, Move Forward was the big winner on election day.
Of the 500 seats in Thailand’s House of Representatives (or lower house), Move Forward won 151 seats, while Pheu Thai, another member of the eight-party opposition coalition, won 141 seats.
“You’d think, in a normal parliamentary democracy, after more than two months you’d have a government, and the prime minister would be the leader of the most popular party,” Dr Sinpeng says.
But neither of those things have happened.
Blocked from taking power
Thailand’s parliamentary system means coalition governments are not new — after an election, parties can form alliances and the PM may be produced by this process.
But Limjaroenrat faced an additional hurdle to becoming PM, namely the military.
In a vote of both houses of parliament, the military-appointed Senate helped block Limjaroenrat. Then a court decision suspended him from parliament and further efforts to renominate him have been scuttled.
“The party which clearly won the most seats, which had assembled a coalition of the majority of the lower house, has essentially been prevented from forming a government,” Dr Raymond says.
“We have a situation where the Thai people are moving on, but the actual political dynamics are stuck in the past.”
The runner-up to form government?
With Limjaroenrat’s efforts thwarted, something his Move Forward party has accepted, the runner-up party Pheu Thai now looks set to form government.
Pheu Thai is a populist, anti-military party, which has been part of an alliance with Move Forward. Without the radical reforms of Move Forward, it’s more palatable to establishment forces.
But the party is in an uncomfortable predicament.
“For Pheu Thai to be able to form a government … it would have to force itself to swallow all that pride — and everything that it fought for — and form an alliance with the very parties that support the military,” Dr Sinpeng explains.
And in such a scenario, the election-trouncing Move Forward party would find itself in opposition.
“We don’t really know the leader who Pheu Thai will nominate [for prime minister]. It looks like Srettha Thavisin. He’s not a very experienced politician. He’s mainly been a businessman,” Dr Raymond says.
Amidst the uncertainty, former Pheu Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 military coup and has been living in exile in Dubai, has announced he may return to the country.
Dr Sinpeng says this announcement was a big development, as “it is a really strong indicator that potentially we’re seeing a political realignment in Thailand [towards Pheu Thai]”.
A funeral for democracy
The events of recent months have been the last straw for some Thais, frustrated with the politics of the past decade.
Dr Sinpeng says many people on social media — especially young people — are asking, “Why did you get me to vote? What was the point of an election if you’re not going to care what I said?”
One protest has included what Dr Sinpeng calls “a funeral” for democracy at Bangkok’s Democracy Monument.
“[There was] burning of flowers, which is done in a Buddhist funeral, and people wearing black, mourning the death of democracy,” she says.
But Dr Sinpeng adds that demonstrations like this have not been as big or as impactful as other protests the country has experienced in the past.
Because of this, she says the ongoing political crisis isn’t leading to disruptions for Australian tourists or visitors.
The world watches
In late July, the Thai parliament postponed another vote to select a new prime minister. It’s a sign that the political brinkmanship and uncertainty will continue.
And in the meantime, Prayuth Chan-ocha remains caretaker prime minister, but has said he plans to retire.
“The [election] result will be perhaps a little comforting to the dictators around mainland South-East Asia because [the establishment] has been able to defeat an insurgent democracy movement, using a rigged constitution,” Dr Raymond says.
But even with these democratic stumbles, both Dr Raymond and Dr Sinpeng say one positive thing to emerge from the election is that Thailand’s relations with the West, including Australia, may actually improve in the months and years ahead.
“The new government will look a lot more democratic — or legitimate — because it [likely] will include Pheu Thai, which is anti-military,” Dr Sinpeng says.
If that’s the case, “we can’t say anymore that Thailand’s government is military, military-backed or autocratic”, she says.
There’s another positive note, too.
Dr Sinpeng believes the fraught election “has led to a more politically aware and critical Thailand — despite the outcome — and that is a good thing”.
Yet in the short term, these sentiments may be little consolation for the millions of Thais who voted for big structural changes via the Move Forward party.
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