War, oil, inflation and monetary policy

The hottest topic in the economic and investment world today is the war between Russia and Ukraine, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of the neighbouring country on Thursday. As the conflict is escalating quickly, we will consider the possibility of a full-blown war in which Russian and NATO forces would fight, impacts on the economy, inflation and global monetary policy.

Mr Putin for years has been warning the West about the consequences if Ukraine is admitted to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The country first sought entry in 2008 but still has a long way to go to meet the terms. But in June 2020 it was declared an “enhanced opportunity partner”, a possible stepping stone to membership.

Developments in the next month in Ukraine will be critical. For Russia, the…