The economic outlook in a year of uncertainty

Next year will be an uncertain one for both the global and Thai economies, especially concerning three areas: economic recession, geopolitical problems and government economic measures.

GLOBAL PROJECTION

In terms of the global economic outlook in 2024, our view is that developed economies will enter a recession in the first half of the year, leading the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by one percentage point during that period.

The Chinese economy is expected to slow gradually with support from monetary policy relaxation. However, structural problems will persist, especially deflation. Global economic risks will increase from wars and elections.

Our view is the US economy has three weak points. In terms of consumption, excess savings are exhausted, credit card debt is increasing amid record-high interest rates, and wage growth has slowed…