This story appears in the July 2023 issue of Forbes Asia. Subscribe to Forbes Asia
This story is part of Forbes’ coverage of Thailand’s Richest 2023. See the full list here.
While inflation and the war in Ukraine weighed on Thailand’s post-pandemic momentum last year, tourism’s quickening recovery is set to fuel GDP growth in 2023. The country’s tourism ministry sees the number of international visitors nearly tripling to 30 million from a year ago, though arrivals will remain below 2019 levels. Following relatively subdued 2.6% growth in 2022, GDP is expected to expand 3.6% this year and 3.8% in 2024.
Tourism-led retail sales growth and a projected increase in Thailand’s consumer spending are also seen improving the economic outlook. However, ballooning household debt, which reached 87% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022, remains a worry, with Thailand’s central bank signaling in February a need to bring debt levels down to below 80% to lower financial risk. Thailand has one of the highest household debt to GDP ratios in Asia (third after South Korea and Hong Kong), according to Bank for International Settlements data. In welcome news, inflation is expected to ease this year as food and energy prices stabilize following a sharp increase in living costs in 2022.
Political uncertainty after Thailand’s recent general election—with the nation’s opposition parties gaining the most seats in the lower house of parliament—has caused Thai equities to stumble, putting its stock market among the worst-performing Asian exchanges so far this year. Thai voters and global investors are looking for a stable new government and clear economic policies, including debt-restructuring measures, for sustainable growth.
