Thailand’s pro-democracy opposition has taken the lead in early polling results as voters delivered a rebuke to the military in a contest that could herald the country’s first transfer of power for a decade.
Sunday’s election represents the strongest chance for Thai voters to reclaim control from a military-aligned government and arrest a cycle of military coups, violent crackdowns and political turmoil that has plagued the country and seen its economic growth lag behind regional neighbours.
The Pheu Thai party, Thailand’s largest opposition group, was in the lead with about 23 per cent late on Sunday, with more than half of the votes counted, according to Thailand’s Election Commission.
The party is led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, who only formally entered politics last year. She is the youngest daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire telecoms magnate and populist former prime minister whose elected government was overthrown in a military coup in 2006.
Her party was closely trailed by Move Forward with about 22.5 per cent of the votes, reflecting signs of a backlash against Thailand’s deeply conservative royalist-military establishment. The progressive party had surged in pre-election polling on enthusiasm from urban and young voters following protests in 2020. Pita Limjaroenrat, Move Forward’s Harvard- and MIT-educated leader, announced late on Sunday that he expected his party would begin coalition talks with Pheu Thai.
Move Forward’s supporters “have grown up in a time of political polarisation marked by protests, coups, and crackdowns”, said Napon Jatusripitak, a research fellow at Singapore-based Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, saying the result “will give us a glimpse into whether there is enough appetite for change”.
Military-aligned parties trailed in early returns. The United Thai Nation party, a vehicle for incumbent prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, received only about 8 per cent of the vote. The ruling Palang Pracharath party, which is led by Prayuth’s deputy and longtime mentor Prawit Wongsuwan following a schism within the government, was on 10 per cent.
Prayuth, a former military chief who seized power in 2014 by deposing Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra, had faced criticism at home and by some allies for repressing civil liberties and crushing the 2020 protests, which sought to curb the privileges of the monarchy, Thailand’s most powerful institution.
But the military maintains a significant advantage under Thailand’s 2017 constitution, which allows a 250-member junta-appointed senate to vote alongside the 500-seat elected lower house on a prime minister.
One possible kingmaker is the regional populist Bhumjaithai party, which was third in early returns. The party, led by health minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who drove the successful campaign last year for marijuana decriminalisation, also tipped the scales following disputed polls in 2019, when it backed Prayuth.
The opposition is hoping an overwhelming margin will press the Senate to co-operate with the result, but it faces an uphill battle to form a government, and final results may not be available for weeks.
The threat of a military takeover or judicial intervention to disqualify opposition candidates also looms: Pita is already facing a complaint with the election commission over his ownership of shares in a broadcaster, the same breach that led to the leader of Move Forward’s precursor being banned from politics for 10 years. Two of Thaksin’s previous parties were also dissolved.
Move Forward’s proposals for reforming the military and monarchy, including the harsh lèse majesté laws, are viewed by the establishment as “an existent threat”, according to Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. “It’s going to be very difficult to reform the old order without some kind of a confrontation.”
