Thailand election result 2023: Pheu Thai and Move Forward Party stun military loyalists

Thailand election result 2023: Thailand’s opposition parties have gained early traction in the preliminary election vote count, with progressive parties leading the conservative military-aligned parties that have been in power for almost a decade. The Sunday election saw 500 lower house seats up for grabs, with 400 being directly elected constituency seats and the rest being allocated via a proportional representation system.

The Move Forward Party (MFP), a progressive party formed in 2020, is on track to win 115 constituency seats, while Pheu Thai, the opposition party linked to the billionaire Shinawatra family, is set to win 112 constituency seats. The United Thai Nation Party of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha is expected to win 25 of the constituency seats.

MFP’s impressive performance backed by youth

The progressive MFP party’s late-stage surge in opinion polls was built on young people, including 3.3 million first-time voters, turning out in large numbers to support its liberal agenda. This includes dismantling monopolies, weakening the military’s political role, and amending a strict law on royal insults that critics argue stifles dissent. The unofficial results show that the progressive party is doing much better than expected, and its success may be attributed to the public’s desire for radical reforms to the monarchy and military. 

376 votes needed to become PM

The election is the first in the country since a youth-led uprising in 2020, which called for curbs on the powers of King Maha Vajiralongkorn and an end to military-backed rule. However, even with the opposition’s gains, there is no guarantee that either party will govern, even as an alliance, due to the military government-scripted 2017 constitution, which favours the military.

Analysts predict weeks of horse trading before alliances are formed and a prime minister is chosen. Parties must have at least 25 seats to nominate a candidate, who needs 376 votes across the two houses to become prime minister. The Senate, which was appointed by the military government, is expected to vote in favour of parties or blocs allied with the military.

Can we write off Prayuth?

Although Prayuth’s party performed poorly in the polls, his return as prime minister cannot be ruled out, as the same Senate that unanimously helped elect him to the post in 2019 is expected to vote in favour of parties or blocs allied with the military. The Election Commission is not expected to officially confirm the final number of seats won by each party for several weeks.