There have been 10 military coups since Thailand became a constitutional democratic monarchy in 1932, including two in 2006 and another two in 2014. Both followed violent protests between Pheu Thai supporters and their opponents.
With this recent history, no one takes a peaceful transfer of power for granted.
The first hurdle Move Forward faces is forming a government. This is not straightforward. Logically, it would seem suited to be in a coalition with Pheu Thai, the opposition party that had won the most votes at every election since 2001 – until Move Forward romped home on Sunday night. The orange force led by Pita Limjaroenrat won 151 seats; Pheu Thai took 141.
It was Pheu Thai the military-aligned conservative forces had in mind when they introduced a new constitution that requires both houses of parliament to elect the leader of the country. To be sure of the prime ministership, a party or coalition has to control 376 seats in the 500-seat lower house to neuter the votes of 250 nominated senators.
The current senators are in place for another four years. They were all handpicked by a militarily aligned administration and most are expected to be leery of Move Forward and just about everything it stands for.
So, the safest bet for Move Forward is to cobble together a coalition, however ragtag, to ensure the control of 376 seats. On Monday, however, it said it would not take this route. Rather, it’s sticking to its principles and not just jumping into bed with anyone, while moving fast to get in front of blocking moves from the other side of politics.
At a press conference in Move Forward’s party headquarters in Bangkok, Pita was already presenting himself as prime minister after joining with Pheu Thai and several smaller parties to form a coalition that would control 309 seats.
Securing a majority in the lower house is no mean feat – particularly so quickly after the vote. But it’s not certain this Move Forward-led coalition will have its choice of prime minister now that the Senate has a look in.
Leader of Move Forward Party Pita Limjaroenrat shakes hand with a supporter as he leaves from Move Forward Party headquarters in Bangkok on Sunday. AP
Pita also faces another potential obstacle with his candidacy the subject of a legal challenge over claims he owns shares in a defunct media company. The Election Commission and National Anti-Corruption Commission are investigating. Mr Pita says he has no case to answer as the shares belong to his family.
The big question that will play out in the coming days and weeks is whether the conservative forces regroup, unite and attempt to form a minority government.
A pre-election falling-out between caretaker prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan led the former to form a new party that managed to secure only 36 seats in the lower house. Prawit, meanwhile, leads Palang Pracharat, which was left with 40 seats after losing 76 – a thumping loss even when Prayut’s vote-splitting new party is considered.
If Prawit and Prayut joined forces with other pro-monarchy parties, including the pro-cannabis Bhumjaithai, and they convince senators to join their cause, they could yet challenge the progressive bloc.
Pita is betting they won’t. “No one and no party would go against the people’s will now they have spoken through their votes,” he said on Monday.
“We’ve called time on the junta,” he added triumphantly.
Most are hoping he’s right, and that the conservative forces don’t try it on. Snubbing the popular vote to such an extent would bring pro-democracy forces on to the streets in record numbers. This could give the generals an excuse to mount another coup and Thailand’s moment of hope would be quickly erased.
