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Thursday, May 2, 2024

Recent History in Thailand Leaves Many Clues As to Who Can Contend | LPGA


Last year, Lilia Vu won the Honda LPGA Thailand, and it catapulted her year – and career – into another stratosphere. Vu returns to Siam Country Club as the number one player in the world and is ready to defend her title for the first time ever. She is joined by 20 of the top 35 in the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings as the LPGA Tour restarts its 2024 season.

The field of 72 players will play 72 holes of no-cut tournament golf this week, and with the event starting Wednesday night, make sure you get those bets in before the play begins!

The Old Course at Siam Country Club has hosted the event for some time, and over the past decade, the average winning score is 20-under. But in the past five years, that 72-hole total has jumped to 23-under, and 14 of the 18 holes have an average score under par for the tournament.

The parkland layout covers 6,576 yards and plays to a par of 72. Here’s a quick scorecard breakdown:

  • Par 3s: 4 (average length of 169 yards)
  • Par 4s: 10 (average length of 384 yards)
  • Par 5s: 4 (average length of 515 yards)

All three hole lengths fall under the LPGA average – one of the main reasons why the course is scorable. In 2022, there were 15 scores of 65 or better, and in 2023, there were 13 scores of 65 or better throughout the week. This parkland layout allows plenty of sub-par scoring, as evidenced by the top-10 finishers over the last two years collectively averaging 24 birdies. Since scoring is a huge priority, here are the scorers in this field to watch very closely: Xiyu Lin, Cheyenne Knight, Charley Hull and Sei Young Kim.

Those same two leaderboards saw 24 players finish in the top 10 the 2022 and 2023, including ties for 10th, and their largest gains on the field came through approach play. Approximately 66 percent of the iron shots into these greens fall between 125-175 yards, so the best mid-iron players tend to contend here because there are so many of the same style of shot with even three of the four par 3 yardages falling in this range. Hye Jin Choi, Ayaka Furue and Georgia Hall are all off to sensational starts this season with their irons, and with no cut and a familiar layout, they should continue that trend this week in Thailand.

The Old Course is dotted with 83 bunkers, 43 of which surround the greens. The leaders tend to hit a bunch of greens in regulation here, so around-the-green acumen isn’t a differentiating skill. Those same two groups of top-10 finishers from the past two tournaments averaged 79 percent of greens in regulation. While this implies great approach skill, it also tells you that those who find the fairway on this layout have an advantage.

Most LPGA Tour players hit the fairway, so it’s important to take into consideration length when featuring Hull, Haeran Ryu, Choi and Linn Grant on a betting card as players who have an advantage off the tee. All of those GIRs lead to birdie chances. These putting surfaces are covered in Bermudagrass, and much like Florida, handling the grain on the green is a skill. Amy Yang, Brooke Henderson and Leona Maguire are the best on the greens historically at Siam’s Old Course that are in this year’s field.

History is another thing to consider when predicting who will contend and win on Tour. Consider one player who has won here three times since 2015: Amy Yang.

Some Thailand natives that aren’t listed above could also make waves this week in Chonburi. Patty Tavatanakit just won last week on the Ladies European Tour for the first time since the 2021 Chevron Championship. Much like Nelly Korda’s crowd in Bradenton, Florida, the 11 Thai players in this year’s field may have an edge at home.

Peruse through all 72 players and start to make your own predictions. Keep a list close by and play along even if you don’t wager. By just picking players you will soon feel more connected to the leaderboard, and any emotional link to the action definitely makes the golf all the more entertaining.

 

Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional. He covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR for Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, LPGA, and PGA of America. If you are looking to raise your golf acumen and love inside information about the game, check out his weekly newsletter called Read The Line.



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