Another former general, and Prayuth’s former key backer, Prawit Wongsuwan, is also running for prime minister, while Prayuth himself has formed a rival military-allied party. This division has raised hopes that the generals might be tossed out of power and of the country’s possible return to stable electoral democracy.
But for many reasons, it is far too early to hand the election to Pheu Thai, and far too early to predict who will eventually become prime minister.
The election system has changed since the 2019 poll. Bigger parties are expected to benefit from the changes that see a return to a two-ballot system of separate votes for local constituencies and party-list candidates.
Smaller parties are likely to be disadvantaged, especially the opposition liberal Move Forward, which is popular with Bangkok’s younger voters and urban elite. The party is the successor to the popular Future Forward party that was banned after the 2019 election.
Thai polls are also often unreliable, and therefore the apparent high levels of support for Pheu Thai might be weaker than they claim.
No matter which party prevails at the election, which decides 500 seats in the lower house of parliament, other crucial variables are also at play. The elected MPs will vote, along with an unelected 250-member senate – made up entirely of allies of the military – on the next prime minister. It also means that a party must win a huge 376 seats of the 500 up for grabs to have a chance of forming government.
While their intentions are largely opaque, some senators have indicated they will respect the voice of the people. More importantly, the military split may mean the senators do not vote together as a single bloc.
Then there is still the tricky matter of coalitions. None of Pheu Thai’s leaders have ruled out entering a coalition with the military proxy Palang Pracharath Party. The clear distinction, therefore, between the so-called democratic and authoritarian sides of Thai politics present after the 2019 poll may dissolve.
A supporter hugs Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha during general election campaigning in Bangkok. AP
This more fluid mix means many other coalition combinations are possible. Choosing a prime minister may mean haggling as these alignments solidify, and smaller parties could become kingmakers.
Many parties also have more than one candidate for prime minister at this point in the campaign. Although Paetongtarn Shinawatra is popular, she is flanked by two older and more experienced Pheu Thai candidates, and is therefore no sure thing.
If Pheu Thai returns, the seeds of the next coup, either military or judicial, may also be sown. Pheu Thai’s populist promises – such as a 10,000 baht cash bonus ($442) paid into a digital wallet for all adults – may offer a pretext for intervention.
This was the case in 2014 when former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s poorly designed scheme to buy rice from farmers well above market prices was framed as economically irresponsible. The possibility of Thaksin returning to Thailand could also again inflame the conservatives and provoke a return to the streets.
Deep social and regional cleavages remain in Thailand, making the country’s politics and the election as uncertain as ever.
Greg Raymond is a senior lecturer at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, The Australian National University. This article is part of a series from East Asia Forum (www.eastasiaforum.org) at the Crawford School in the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific.
