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Thursday, May 2, 2024

Market Thoughts 10/08 | ThaiCapitalist

Note: Data as of 09/08

Have the number of “cases” officially peaked in Thailand over the weekend? Are they reporting that more people are being released from hospitals/hospitels? Is it time for the reopening trade to finally take off? I’ve been wrong on the timing on it this time (took longer than I thought), though internally we have been modeling this versus India’s experience with the Delta (I like to call it the Chindian version, my Malaysian friends will appreciate this) which was a ~3 month cycle.

Commodities (oil) have been smacked recently, doesn’t take away from my thinking that next year we’ll see ~100 barrel. In Thailand coal names had done well (AGE, LANNA, BANPU), but BANPU’s management decided to double their equity and ruin a great share price performance….was of the viewpoint that it would’ve comfortably been 20+ without…

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