Krungthai COMPASS, Krungthai Bank Expect the economy this year to grow. 1.5-3.0%, with the view that Thailand faces a new outbreak in April 2021 from the mutated COVID-19 virus, which may take at least three months for the situation to be resolved.
Estimated GDP growth for 2021 decreased to 1.5% -3.0% depending on 3 main factors: 1. The ability to manage the mutant epidemic effectively. 2. The distribution of vaccines as planned. And 3.The state injects more than 200 billion baht to support the economy. “Follow the target – continue – to the point” if any of the factors does not occur The Thai economy is less vulnerable to expansion than expected.
The impact is divided into 2 cases.
Krungthai COMPASS divides the impact into 2 cases: the base case that expects domestic tourism to contract during the three months. As a result, the number of domestic tourists for the whole year fell from the original estimate of 115.2 million to 98.6 million people, worth about 9 billion baht.
The Worse case is in the event of a redundant outbreak. It is expected that the broader plans for foreign tourists that were previously estimated to be achievable in the last quarter of 2021 may not be possible. Domestic demand may disappear to 9.1-18.5 billion baht.
However, the global economy recovered significantly from massive stimulus spending. Including the vaccination to the population that is relatively fast in many countries. Support for Thai exports to improve This increases GDP growth by 0.3% compared to the previous forecast.
The origin
