The effects of an escalating war between Israel and Hamas will be much more serious and extensive than the ongoing war in Ukraine, due to potential involvement of western and Arab countries and the fact that the Middle East provides 70% of global oil demand, according to Aat Pisanwanich, an independent scholar and economist.
As far as Thailand is concerned, Thai exports to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, estimated at more than US$10 billion annually, are likely to fall by 10-15%, he said, adding that global crude oil prices may rise to US$100 per barrel from the current rate, fluctuating between 82-85 US dollars/barrel, if Iran, Qatar and some western countries, such as the United States, Britain and Canada, get directly involved in the Israeli-Hamas conflict.
Even if Israel manages to occupy Gaza, the war will not be over and may drag on, with the participation…
