Many people now believe US economic conditions are right for a “soft landing” as inflation continues to decline. Hence, investors expect that this week’s US Federal Reserve interest-rate increase will be the last one for the rest of the year.
Inflation has also declined in Europe and the UK. In short, it seems that the need to speed up rate hikes is diminishing.
However, taking a closer look, economic indicators send worrisome signals. The latest Conference Board leading economic index, used to predict the US business cycle about seven months ahead, declined for the 15th consecutive month in June as consumer expectations fell.
Key components of the index also deteriorated: new orders weakened, the number of people…
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