Fewer Chinese visitors to derail Thailand’s tourism target of 30 million visitors

BANGKOK – Thailand is likely to miss its goal of hosting 30 million foreign tourists in 2023 amid fewer-than-expected visitors from China, according to Malaysia’s RHB Bank.

RHB Bank senior economist Barnabas Gan wrote in a note that inbound arrivals from China to Thailand for 2023 could drop slightly below five million, below the seven million expected by the Thai government.

The possibility of China’s economic activity slowing in the second half of 2023 will crimp demand for outbound tourism, he said.

Figures from hotel commerce platform SiteMinder, Chinese shopping site Meituan and the Tourism Authority of Thailand released this week revealed that more than 1.3 million travellers to Thailand in 2023 were from China.

Foreign travellers entering Thailand reached 12.5 million from Jan 1 to June 25, according to the Tourism and Sports Ministry.

Overall tourist arrivals to Thailand have topped two million every month between December and May.

As a result, Thailand’s annual foreign tourist arrivals will be between 26 and 28 million in 2023, according to RHB.

That will still be twice 2022’s tally of 11.2 million.

Thailand welcomed about 40 million tourists before the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, with Chinese tourists making about a quarter of the total visitors.

“We expect full-year tourism arrivals to disappoint official estimates,” Mr Gan wrote. “Thailand’s tourism prognosis remains at best, neutral, given the recent slowdown in inbound tourism momentum.”

He also cited rising tourism-led competition from neighbouring countries and exacerbated domestic political noise as additional factors affecting Thailand’s tourism recovery outlook going forward.

The bearish outlook for inbound Chinese visitors is also echoed by the Thai travel agent operators.

The tally is seen below five million on visa issues and safety concerns, according to the Association of Thai Travel Agents.

Media reports about tourist extortions and safety have dented confidence among Chinese travellers, according to association president Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn.

The government needs to push for more arrivals between July and September, the period coinciding with summer vacations in China, to drive up tourism recovery, said Mr Sisdivachr. BLOOMBERG