Likewise, staunch conservatives who see Thaksin as a corrupting influence and the Red Shirt Movement as illegitimate are unlikely to change their views overnight. The political turmoil catalysed by Thaksin’s exile is unlikely to conclude merely due to his return and subsequent pardon.
For over a decade, Thaksin has been the lightning rod for conflict between opposing groups in both electoral and street-level politics. However, the recent shifts suggest that the focal point of tension is moving beyond Thaksin.
All signs indicate that a new political fault line centred on the role of the monarchy is here to stay.
After all, Pheu Thai only managed to ascend into the corridors of power after making explicit promises to refrain from undertaking monarchy-related reforms and excluding the MFP. Progressives will gravitate away from Pheu Thai towards the MFP, seeing it as the rightful party to undertake popular reform.
Conservatives, on the other hand, find themselves at a crossroads: Either adapt to new political realities by reconciling with Thaksin and Pheu Thai as the lesser of two evils or assume a distinctly conservative position that no longer offers blind allegiance to the monarchy.
A FRAGILE COALITION
The current government, inheriting these simmering tensions, has adopted a reconciliatory approach, forming a grand coalition that claims to represent all interests – except those championed by the MFP.
However, the fragility of this coalition calls into question its “grand” status. In a true grand coalition, previously exemplified by the Thai Rak Thai in 2001, the defection of a single party or faction would not jeopardise the entire alliance.
As it stands, however, if the Bhumjaithai Party were to withdraw its support during a no-confidence debate, that alone could unseat Srettha, a prime minister lacking in political standing, whether in Pheu Thai or the broader coalition.
