note – It is a scholar’s opinion on the political situation. at various political parties Fully prepared for the upcoming elections.
Oran Thin Bang Tiew
Lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science and Law Burapha University
Assessing the party situation PPP in forming the next government sees that a strategy has been established to position itself as a government and would not be a leader in forming a government but definitely wants to be in the ruling party Many people in the party PPP believes in prestige Gen. Prawit, who can definitely put the party in the equation for forming a government. and what a party The PPP has a great strategy, namely Gen. Prawit’s senators as supporters for the party. The PPP must be in the equation for forming a government. Whether it was established in the name of the PT Party or the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party (RTSC).
If the PPP merges with the party Area in establishing a government must look at the relationship between General Prawit and Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra, even if there is
However, violent quarrels But don’t forget about events that happened in the past. NCPO has helped Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra in fleeing through natural channels while the NCPO has a lot of power which is impossible to escape from the country considered to have a very strong relationship As for whether it affects the red shirts or not. when the dictatorship will unite with the democracy In this regard, the red shirts can take it easy.
On the other hand, if the party PPP to join the party RTC establishes government There is also a possibility But the leadership game will change. In the past, when forming a government in the party The game is at Gen. Prawit and everyone criticizes that General Prayut Just a prime minister nominee But the real Prime Minister is General Prawit, believes that Gen. Prayut has always kept his feelings in his heart about this matter. Therefore, setting up the next government will require a strategy. next political game Gen. Prayut must be the real one officially, along with pulling Gen. Prawit as his brother to stay with him.
However, when looking at the flow of the party RTC next election May not be a big party but enough to collect MPs until being able to nominate a candidate for Prime Minister and think that the current coalition government Whether it’s Bhumjaithai Party (PPP), Democrat Party (PDP) or other parties trying to unite Willing to cooperate with the party RRT in forming a government because he knew well that the political entity would have to rely on the senators in the hands of Gen. Prayuth as well
At this time it will be seen that Many MPs are about to decide to go to the RTC Party. Thinking that there will be an assessment in terms of Gen. Prayut has a senator in his hand, and the RTS party considers it a new well. with rich resources and has assessed the likelihood of forming a government rather than the PPP.
There is a question that frequent parliamentary collapses will lead to the dissolution of parliament or not. During this connection, the key man of the party The RRT will try to pull MPs come to the event as much as possible. or flexible to those MPs have the opportunity to transfer from various parties to the RTC party, after which they will signal the dissolution of the parliament.
For the right person to be the next Prime Minister In the current situation, according to the principle Who can be Prime Minister? People who are not representatives of the NCPO and must not be involved in any conflict. at the same time as the party The PT still play the same old political game. whoever it is they say they are on the democratic side Anyone who is not a member is considered a political enemy if the PT Party cannot land a slide to form a single-party government. have to rely on the party and must rely on senators and must be in the structure Must choose a military faction to join.
As for General Prawit, he will sit as Prime Minister. I think it’s probably not. But if he actually sits in the prime minister’s position, there will be more pressure. Just journalists, students, and students questioning the clock. This is just bad.
want to look at the equation Gen. Prayut was Prime Minister for 2 years, then joined the government with the PDP Party and asked Mr. Anutin Charnvirakul, PDP Party leader, to sit as Prime Minister. Looking at this, it might be possible.
In the event that Mr. Anutin will become Prime Minister or not see that the next government is formed, even though the PPP party has a good vote But the timing is still not right. Because it will be opposed to inheriting power and having support from senators. If it’s beautiful, Mr. Anutin should be prime minister in the next election. But not the 2023 election.
Tassanai Setthaseri
Lecturer of the Faculty of Fine Arts Chiang Mai University
political direction after the election There are two political parties that have the opportunity to form a government leader, namely Palang Pracharat Party (PPP) and Pheu Thai Party (PPT) due to their potential. more prepared than other parties But I do not believe that the PPP and the Area will join hands to form a government leader. And there is no possible way because the people of the Red Shirt opposition party area probably wouldn’t agree. would move against rather than support
As for the news that the two parties may shake hands It is a wise strategy of General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the PPP and his team. Placed betel nuts reduce the trend of faith and popularity or discredit the area and create confusion. More skeptical to the public or supporters, so don’t fall into the trap of such strategies. may affect the election, while the PPP flows out of the party to join the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party (RTP), which tends to Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister, will also attend. Including Bhumjaithai Party (PorTorTor.) and some have moved back to the TRT Party according to the popular trend of the people
In addition, the formula for dividing 100 MPs, party list system or party list It is considered that the opportunity for a small party to be elected is closed, making the PPP unable to buy Hao MPs or collect votes from small parties to form a government again. Therefore, the PPP must join hands with the RTN as a leader to form a government rather than according to a separate strategy, walking together and attacking, with General Prayut returning to lead the country again. Since capitalists or non-constitutional forces give more support than General Prawit, so if talking about the PPP and the RNT, it is the same story. to hold hands and walk together can’t part ways If walking each way believe that the two parties have a high chance of losing the election not being the leader of the next generation of government Except there is a miracle from an independent organization. and the power outside the constitution comes to embrace again
As for the dissolution of parliament before the end of the government’s term in March next year It depends on the performance of MPs whether they attend the meeting with a quorum or not. If MPs parachute cause the parliament to collapse often, Gen. Prayut may decide to dissolve the parliament for a new election, although Gen. Prayut wants to stay. until the end of the agenda to maintain the power base, interests, and control the electoral mechanism compete for political advantages as well
In the final moments before next year’s election, I would like all parties to propose concrete, feasible policies, not fanciful policies. able to meet the needs of the public If any party can form a government want to amend the constitution and legal regulations that obstruct the administration of state affairs Ready to reform the bureaucratic system to be modern, streamlined, especially the structure, economic system and social rebuilding. Reduce inequality, freedom, more equality.
Jumpon Chuenjitsiri
academician of law Prince of Songkhla University
in the next election Gen. Prawit is considered one who has enough political charisma to be the leading party in forming a government. and still have prestige in capital Including the prestige in the matter of associates and followers can order anyone to do any duty Because it has been accumulated for more than 8 years and has a personality that is ready to work with people of all groups and parties.
However, the fact that General Prawit will lead the party PPP joining the PPP party would be a difficult question to answer. because he had to look at the political situation at that time, the number of MPs, including political bargaining and benefits Therefore, it would be difficult to analyze. Although I personally think that the flexibility of Gen. Prawit will be able to combine with all political parties. But the important thing is that the people of the whole country can accept it or not. or how can they answer to the public
For the problem of frequent council collapses It’s a political technique. It was intended to fail rather than an accident. It was deliberate and planned beforehand, not suddenly an accident. But will it lead to the dissolution of parliament? Personally, I think that the government will stay until February next year, it is considered complete. And it seems to be the right time to dissolve the parliament. Because now the score of Gen. Prayuth has just begun to rally. After the APEC Leaders’ Meeting It is expected that by February, the flow of Gen. Prayut will be better until ripe appropriate to dissolve parliament
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