Bangkok Post – Global and Thai economies face rising risk

Three recent events have changed the world economic picture and monetary policy outlook.

The events are: an increasingly severe geopolitical situation, the global economy improving at a better rate than expected, and a signal from the US Federal Reserve that interest rates will not be cut for a while, and will fall by less than expected.

On the geopolitical front, the Israeli-Hamas war has become more serious. The tit-for-tat attacks by Iran and Israel on each other’s territory — the first of their kind — confirm our view that a “shadow war” is unfolding.

We maintain our view that from now until the US presidential election in November, geopolitical violence could increase and the “proxy war” could…