# The 8 party MOU is no more. Pheu Thai kicks Move Forward into opposition. The people are left with nothing.
[From left to right: Phumtham Wechayachai, deputy leader; Cholanan Srikaew, leader; Prasert Chanthararuangthong, secretary-general after announcing their betrayal to the Thai people. \(Credit: Khaosod\)](https://preview.redd.it/5hs8yjinlwfb1.png?width=1568&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb146b821e528bab69d99aad82043f808bdaeac4)
Pheu Thai has finally kicked Move Forward all the way out. The way our political system is built has already assured Move Forward’s fate today in no uncertain terms, and the culmination of all the puppeteering and maneuvering has been realised today. The party that won the election is now becoming the opposition instead.
I know the people who are reading this post will tell me that this outcome is the one that’s always been intended for; that it is the one destined to happen. That the invisible hand of outside-the-game politics always wins. Even if this was the plan all along, it still disgusts me to the core that Pheu Thai actually went through with this.
Let me make it clear that I’m not surprised that this has happened. However, all the hate and angry in the world that I can muster is for the men who subverted the people’s political sovereignty. What Pheu Thai is doing right now is essentially handing political sovereignty to the senators who are doing everything to kneecap and humiliate Pheu Thai. In essence, the senators have succeeded in turning the people against themselves. This unfortunately is not a matter of the people vs senators anymore, but the people vs Pheu Thai.
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[Dr Ying smugly looks on at people protesting Pheu Thai’s betrayal in front of Pheu Thai headquarters.](https://preview.redd.it/fruu5q6plwfb1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ec6c3c14f4680584ca80b0e5abb16ae500833af)
# Move Forward gets expelled, so what now?
Move Forward is going to have to continue their work in the house of representatives despite being pushed towards the opposition. They’re now going to have to choose between being leader of the opposition or retain the deputy speakership, considering that the party which leads the opposition by law can’t also hold the speakership or any of the deputy speakerships. Either way I have full confidence in Move Forward’s ability to leverage their power in the house and do their best despite the massive pile of manure that’s been offloaded onto their doorstep.
The senators having thrown a massive wrench into the prime minister selection vote has caused all this to become one big mumbo jumbo of uncertainty, backstabbing, and deals that can’t be materially backed in the house of representatives. So let’s picture this. Pheu Thai having already given the boot to Move Forward, now they have to find the votes. To get the votes they need to give out ministerial positions, and this can only mean one thing. A cabinet straight from hell. With Srettha as prime minister, and a lot of the people from the last cabinet still holding their post in this government. A Ministry of Public Health that continues to work against the public’s health, a Ministry of Transport that makes it more difficult for people to move around, and several other ministerial posts that couldn’t possibly point the country in a better direction if given to the incumbents. Pheu Thai will have to somehow formulate a government that goes over 375 WITH assistance from senators, which seems like a possibility that is very close to zero.
# Pheu Thai has no good way out.
[The impossible formula, assuming Pheu Thai follows their pledge to make the 2 P’s stay out, and keeps out the democrats for reasons that I hope are obvious to you. \(Thai PBS election website\)](https://preview.redd.it/gxw02t8rlwfb1.png?width=1659&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ccfbb214d2447a6aca6b039951613e4edd3b8a1)
So now we have to take a look at what Pheu Thai’s gonna do next after they finish groveling at the senator’s feet for 27 hours a day. The formula that I’ve arranged above is in the context of current political circumstances is totally and utterly **impossible.**
So now Pheu Thai has to pick and choose. Are they going to break their pledge and bring in the 2 P’s, or are they going to forget what the democrats did to red shirts and ask them to join the coalition? This notwithstanding the question of Pheu Thai successfully getting the senators’ approval either. Anyway, either of these two moves will be political suicide on a scale that has never seen before in the history of our democracy. I fail to see how Pheu Thai will recuperate their losses with the red shirts who will probably turn their backs and vote for Thai Sang Thai or Move Forward instead.
From the way this is going forward, Pheu Thai is finished. It is done. The Shinawatra name can’t save it anymore.
# The Hilarious Takeaway
[This dude was right all along. Now go apologise to him.](https://preview.redd.it/q5d3ki7tlwfb1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcd2b9b625e00aff50cbdef38dd92bad0032151c)
Not gonna put much thought into this last part because I’m sure you can all opine on all day about how this will ruin Thailand, how this is very bad for the people. How the senators have stolen the people’s political sovereignty.
Just let me put in a few sentences how fraught this whole thing is: If Move Forward votes for Srettha (despite being kicked into opposition) it could cause the senators to have mistrust in Pheu Thai and refuse to vote for them! It’s hilarious.
Also, the new coalition could place mistrust in Pheu Thai because there is quite literally nothing stopping Pheu Thai from snapping back to the 8 party coalition, as the other side and the senators can literally do nothing to remove Srettha after that. Really, there is nothing that could materially guarantee the safety of a coalition without Move Forward. There are simply no senators to mess it all up anymore (only in regards to prime minister selection though; there’s still constitutional amendment)
So all in all, a great circus performance. The people will be paying for it with their livelihoods.
