Thai Economic Growth to Be Impacted by US Tariffs, Central Bank Reports

Thailand’s economic growth is anticipated to be affected by US tariffs on exports, but not as significantly as it was during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Sakkapop Panyanukul, assistant governor of the Bank of Thailand.

Key Points

• Economic Impact: US tariffs will slow Thailand’s growth below 2.5% in 2024, affecting exports and manufacturing. The full impact will emerge in H2 2024, but it won’t be as severe as the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Trade Uncertainty: Thailand faces a potential 36% tariff if negotiations fail by July. Global trade policy shifts are a prolonged shock, delaying investments and halting some production.
• Monetary Policy: Inflation may dip due to supply factors, but no immediate pressure exists for further rate cuts. The central bank will review forecasts on April 30 after February’s 25-basis-point reduction.

Tariffs have disrupted production and delayed…