The spread of the covid-19 virus continues to be violent and new species Krungthai Compass has assessed the problems that will affect the economy and tourism. The number of tourist arrivals continued to fall to 63.6 million per visit, which is still lower than previously estimated. including sandbox models May not help to recover the economy back. Because Thailand is still a high risk and may cause tourism not as convenient as expected. But there is a chance to recover from a small group of self-guided tours that focus on safety.
Khun Kittipong Ruanthip, an analyst from Krung Thai Compass also analyzed the situation. Wave 3 outbreak continues to be intense. Affects tourism in the country this year. There is a chance of shrinking from the previously estimated. The number of domestic tourists in May is very low and in June should not be much different. The impact of the third wave of the outbreak brought the number of domestic tourists in May to just 1.4 million, the lowest in a year.
As a result, the average occupancy rate for the whole country is only 5% for the number of tourists in June. High-Frequency Indicators expect that the number of tourists in June should be at a low level, not much different from that of May.
Tourism in July is not expected to recover.
from the severe epidemic and the latest round of semi-lockdown measures The situation of infected people on July 2 at the level of more than 6,000 people, coupled with epidemic control measures. that people traveling from all 10 provinces of the scarlet red color (including Bangkok) must be quarantined when traveling to other provinces as well as a ban on eating in restaurants in many provinces where the outbreak has occurred. All are negative factors in deciding to travel. Therefore, it is expected that tourism will not be able to recover in July.
The third wave of the outbreak is more intense than expected. Pressuring the number of tourists in the country for the whole year to only 63.6 million-times As a result of the outbreak and the latest quasi-lockdown measures, the number of domestic tourists in July is likely to be low. and causing the recovery of tourism to slow down further.
This brings the number of domestic tourists this year to just 63.6 million-times, lower than previously estimated from an estimated 81.2 million-times (Old Baseline), representing an increase in economic damage of about 9.7 thousand. million baht
With the outbreak in the country more severe The number of domestic tourists contracted more than expected. Many may start to hope for the opening of the country to foreign tourists from the sandbox model and expect tourism to recover well next year. In the next section, we will analyze how much tourists will recover after the opening of the country.
How much will the sandbox model keep tourists coming back?
Although sandboxing is done in the third quarter, it is expected that there are not many foreign tourists traveling to Thailand. During July-September there will be a reopen Thailand by accepting foreign tourists. Without quarantine in the first phase, in the group of 10 pilot provinces, including Phuket, Krabi, Phang Nga, Surat Thani, Chiang Mai, Chonburi, Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Buriram and possibly Bangkok, although the sandboxing is not postponed or canceled halfway, it is expected that tourists in this period will not many yet
Because Thailand is not yet accepting tourists from many high-risk countries. in which many countries are the main groups of tourists who have ever come to Thailand If considering the main countries that tourists come to Thailand It was found that many countries are in high-risk groups such as India, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, etc. Therefore, Thailand is not open to tourists from these countries. In addition, the list of countries in each risk group can always be adjusted. It may be another factor that makes travel planning is highly uncertain.
Many countries still do not recommend that people travel to Thailand such as Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, China, as well as western countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States that have not yet recommended or allowed citizens of their own countries to travel to Thailand And if returning from Thailand, they have to quarantine for a period of about 7-14 days, making the inconvenience of traveling to Thailand much higher.
The opening of the sandbox may not help Thailand to receive a large number of foreign tourists immediately. It is a measure of Thailand’s ability to control the epidemic along with receiving foreign tourists. before leading to the opening of the country in the next order, however, although Thailand will open the country next year But next year’s tourism It also faces many risks that keep the number of tourists at a low level.
Even if the country opens in 2022, the chances that the number of foreign tourists are still very low is high.
The mutated virus has caused some vaccines to have lower rates of disease prevention. Medical data compiled by Business Insider shows that some new strains of the virus have lowered disease rates for some vaccines. As a result, many countries with high proportions of vaccinations, such as the UK and Israel, with 49.6% and 55.6% (as of July 3, 2021), will suffer an increase in the number of infections in the country. higher up
If there is an outbreak of a new virus in Thailand Some nations may not recommend traveling to Thailand. In addition to the safety factor Tourists may avoid visiting countries that are currently experiencing the COVID-19 outbreak because upon returning to their home country Several days of quarantine are required in accordance with the requirements of many countries, such as the case of the United Kingdom, where countries are grouped by vaccination and the COVID-19 outbreak. If the outbreak in the country increases That country can also be transformed from a green group. (No need to detain when returning to England) Can go to the red group (must detain for 14 days when returning to England)
In the case of England, although nearly 50% of the population is now fully vaccinated, it still suffers from new strains of the virus. It is therefore likely that Thailand will face an outbreak of a new virus, like Gemma, next year, although Thailand will complete two 50 percent of the population by the end of this year. as intended
As of July 1, 2021, the British designate Thailand as a red country. which if people in England have returned Must be quarantined at home for 14 days and while Thailand is facing this new outbreak Many countries that have a large number of tourists coming to Thailand, such as South Korea, China, Singapore, have regulations that If returning from Thailand Must be quarantined for at least 14 days.
There is also a chance that Thailand will not accept tourists in some countries. If the country has an outbreak Outbreaks of the novel coronavirus could also occur abroad, with as of June, although countries that vaccinate large populations such as the UK and Israel have seen an increase in the number of cases of the coronavirus. By the end of 2021, many countries with many tourists come to Thailand. There may be a not so high vaccination rate at the end of this year. The risk of outbreaks in those countries still exists.
while China, which is a large group of tourists who come to Thailand May not open the country in the first half of 2022 due to concerns about the outbreak of the new virus. that if people in the country travel may bring a new strain of virus back to spread in the country Makes the Chinese authorities have a way to not open the country for another year or until the middle of 2022 if China has not opened the country to travel. will greatly affect the number of tourists who come to Thailand because
In 2019, nearly 12 million Chinese tourists came to Thailand.
Next year’s travel picture: Few people, traveling alone, spending high per head.
Krungthai COMPASS estimates that the number of tourists in 2022 may be just 9.9 million, up from 39.9 million in 2019 due to the virus mutation risk factor. That gives Thailand the opportunity to not accept tourists from some nations. or if there is a new outbreak in Thailand Foreign tourists may also avoid coming to Thailand. as well as the fact that China may not open to the public for international tourism next year
which the number may be higher If the government can effectively control the outbreak in the country Through the distribution of vaccines that are highly effective against new strains of COVID-19. when the tourism sector cannot rely on the number of tourists as usual It is therefore even more important to target potential tourists coming to Thailand next year.
In 2022, self-guided travel will increase. June 2021 shows that travelers are in need of small-group or independent travellers (Free Independent Travelers: FIT) in the post-COVID period. This may be for safety reasons as large group travel with a group tour is more at risk of contracting the disease.
have higher spending per trip Businesses related to premium travelers will recover first. It was analyzed that high-income tourists were the ones who returned to visit first. Because it is probably a group that has the ability to travel more than other groups that may be economically impacted by Covid. And because traveling abroad is something that people around the world can’t do for a long time. And it can’t be done easily even though the country has been opened. Make international tourism even more special. Therefore, travelers may have higher spending per trip.
The results of the tourist survey seem to support this assumption. The survey found that travelers tend to spend more on quality and safe hotel stays. as well as choosing to travel by using full service airlines more Therefore, it is estimated that tourism businesses in the group that focus on premium products and services will recover first.
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