Data from Kantar Worldpanel shows that within the past seven years, Thai Take-Home FMCG has recorded the highest growth rate of 3.4% compared to the country’s annual GDP growth. which is around negative 1% and negative 0.3%, i.e. the overall FMCG market is showing relatively good growth. It shows that business opportunities and growth can still survive if you use e-commerce channels to your advantage.
Starting in 2020, FMCG manufacturers are trying to find better ways to run their businesses during the pandemic and increase the potential to influence future consumer buying behaviors. by adjusting precise marketing strategies in digital media make various product advertisements appearing on more and more of our communication devices. Through the lure of attractive offers and gimmicks such as ‘WOW!’ or “SPECIAL!”, manufacturers expect to reach and transform consumer behavior into customers. These digital ads introduce consumers to well-known e-commerce platforms. or the manufacturer’s website For the convenience of making purchases in just a few clicks.
The latest Winning Omnichannel report from Kantar Worldpanel in October 2021 revealed that e-commerce grew 27.7% in Asia, being the fastest growing FMCG channel. In Thailand, it is not much different. E-commerce in Thailand 2021 will grow 38.1%. Manufacturers are trying to overcome the challenge by focusing on the growing trend in digital and e-commerce.
This year’s greater access to vaccines will boost people’s confidence in their travels. Opening of shopping centers and restaurants will cause consumers to spend more In addition, the easing of travel restrictions will bring tourists back. Promotion plan by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports in 2022 on the topic “Amazing Thailand New Chapter”, which compresses various campaigns aimed at generating income The government expects tourism revenue this year to be 1.3 – 1.8 trillion baht from 5-15 million foreign tourists.
Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report Thailand data shows that as of mid-January 2022, grocery and drugstore mobility trends in Thailand were up 13%, while retail and recreational outlets were down 4% compared to baseline. We also found a 14% decrease in Workplace Mobility, while a 4% increase in Residential mobility, indicating an increase in work-from-home behavior.
Other macro-economic factors have also influenced consumer spending and business operations, most recently, rising staple food prices and rising fuel costs. This makes consumers worried because they have to bear the burden. The government plans to help mitigate these rising costs. However, no one knows how long it will take or how successful it will be. One of the government subsidy programs, such as the popular Half People Program, will continue this year.
FMCG Market Forecast in 2022 by Machine Learning
Suriya Onmongkol, Head of Expert Solutions, Kantar, Worldpanel Division Thailand, explains, “We tested and simulated how FMCG will look this year using the Kantar Worldpanel Insights Suite, combined with machine learning. FMCG will grow 2.1% by the end of 2022, simulating that most factors will remain the same. current situation The recent increase in food inflation is short-term, and Omicron will not have a significant influence on the MCO (Movement Control Order).
But what if Omicron becomes a crisis? What will happen if the government cuts subsidies programs? and if food inflation has not eased The burden falls on the consumer. In such a dire scenario, FMCG sales may fall from minus 0.2% to plus 0.1%. In such an environment, producers may encounter difficulties and should be prepared for consumers to spend more aggressively.
Kantar Worldpanel’s Machine Learning model identifies influencing factors that can have a significant impact on FMCG sales, including trend datasets. We then built a model that looked at the relationship between variables and historical FMCG sales, as well as the Kantar Worldpanel’s consumer insights, which is complete, in-depth and inclusive of the entire consumer population, other macro-economic factors. Any estimates and forecasts made by government institutions will have less impact on changes in this model.”
Interestingly, recent FMCG market data trends from Kantar Worldpanel show that FMCG sales benefit greatly from the pandemic. Lockdowns and government subsidies have led to increased hoarding and shopping behavior. before covid-19 The annual growth rate of the FMCG market has been declining since 2015 and has been flat since the 2017 COVID-19 pandemic. forcing new shopping behaviors and launching government programs However, it is unlikely that there will be any sustainability or long-term impact.
