Export value slowed causing the global economy to slow down and causing supply chain disruption

with the condition of exporting products during this period It is still a problem for the export business group. The value of exports in August grew 8.9%YOY, continually expanding (%YOY) in all major products

But if compared to the previous month on a seasonal adjustment Exports declined as much as -9.1%MoM_sa, partly due to the fall in gold exports by -85.8%YOY.

However, the major exports from Thailand to the top six countries were mainly from China, 32.3%, ASEAN 26.9%, US 16.2%, Europe 12.8%, Japan 10%. electrical circuit computer Electronics, textiles are very strong.

even excluding gold exports Exports also declined from the previous month. This was a result of the delta outbreak that caused the global economy to slow down, as reflected in the decline in Manufacturing PMI in all countries. especially EM countries

In addition, there are also supply chain disruption problems, both from the closure of factories in the country and the cessation of production in trading partner countries that are in the same supply chain. It found that exports of most of Thailand’s key products have declined since July. Since then, especially automobile exports, which have dropped considerably.

EIC expects exports for the remainder of the year to slow down from last year’s higher base, slower global economic outlook, supply chain disruption and chip shortages that begin to affect more.

While in 2022, exports are expected to expand continuously, even at a slower rate from this year due to the global economy that will expand from progress in vaccination. especially in developing countries that will expand faster

However, container shortages have led to high freight rates. and chip shortage It is likely to continue to be a pressure factor for exporters next year.

In addition, Thai export production is also affected by supply chain disruption, both caused by factory closures in Thailand and production halts in trading partner countries in the same supply chain.

There are many factories that are experiencing problems from the outbreak in the country. Coupled with the sharp decline in the Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) in July in many industries, this may reflect supply chain disruption.

However, if the epidemic situation around the world and in the country starts to improve, it will cause
The manufacturing sector can resume operations. This will result in world trade and exports recovering again.

Source: EIC