Bangkok Post – SCB trims growth view amid cloudy outlook

The Thai economy may grow by only 0.8% this year, with a technical recession highly likely in the second half if the government fails to convince the US to lower its reciprocal tariff on Thai exports, while conflicts intensify in the Middle East.

SCB EIC, the research arm of Siam Commercial Bank, projects economic expansion of 1.5% this year, down from 2.5% in 2024, with growth slowing to 1.4% in 2026.

Exports are projected to slide 0.1% this year, down from 5.8% growth last year, followed by a drop of 0.8% next year.

Private investment is expected to contract by 2.2% this year, following a drop of 1.6% in 2024, said Yunyong Thaicharoen, chief economist and sustainability officer at SCB EIC.

“This slow growth reflects the effects of ongoing trade tensions, structural scars in the household and small business sectors, and growing constraints on fiscal…